TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD). Inb4 pos or ban The Economics China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out. https://preview.redd.it/g0nwsssoe7f51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e46b6b2cfa12b351b30ff2c5567c2f9992e99b2 The Current Problem The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars. You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out). China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later. https://preview.redd.it/maul8aope7f51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dd4665517ec7303b51aa1416517c9e0ea50bef The Solution China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed. How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over. This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible. China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products. China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems. Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
PRE-MARKET MOVERS: $WMIH $GNC $CATB $MNGA $ABC $UAA $KDMN $COGT $UA $APRN $CBAY $HX $UVXY $APRI $TVIX $ICHR $WB $CIPS $UGAZ ROCKET BOT - FINVIZ TOP GAINERS - FINVIZ TOP LOSERS Crypto Watch List: BTC XRP ETH LTC GAS NEO WTC PPT SALT LEND VEN XLM XVG OMG ICX ETC XRB FUN STEEM POE EOS SC ZCL COIN MARKET CAP - COINDESK NEWS - RISING/FALLING Disclaimer: The opinions in this thread and forum are solely the opinions of the individual account holders and contributors. The info should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security. All investments entail risks. As with most things in life, caveat emptor.
Since we've all been goxxed now is the time to buy those $50-60 coins floating around and profit from everybody else's misery. Or you could wait for Gox to come back online and crash down the price even further but good luck trying to do any trading there to buy coins, the trading engine is already broken I don't expect the new one to work flawlessly due to epic 3yr history of GOXXING BTC-E.com To pay into this exchange, you need a BTC-E code, PM or Okpay. Take pics of your ID and utility bill and pay the $10 to Okpay for 'quick verification'. You can pay bitcoins directly into your Okpay account for initial funding or wait and see how long it takes for reg verification. Now either wire money, or instant money transfer (MoneyPolo, Contact-sys, Unistream) to fund your account or find an Okpay exchanger somewhere. Or Ukash/CashU. Just because contact-sys is Russian doesn't mean there aren't sending points in every country in the world. BTC-E codes you buy on #bitcoin-otc from verified gpg authenticated traders with good ratings, or on bitcointalk.org forums in the currency exchange forums. Perfect Money is a shady HYIP digital currency run by Russians much like Liberty Reserve. You sign up for free, and load your account with wires (if verified) or you use an exchanger. This is what talkgold.com is for to find legit exchangers. I use wm-center.com to wire WU/Moneygram and get PM. Click on 'Interkassa' payment method in BTC-E and select Perfect Money. Instant load. You can also obviously dump Litecoins you bought on Vircurex to fund the account, or a gagillion PPcoins Bitfloor.com Fastest way to deposit is through CapitalOne P2P or cash deposit https://bitfloor.com/docs/#funding-deposit Be aware Bitfloor is insolvent due to owing 25k bitcoins that were stolen last year but they have a repayment schedule that may or may not bankrupt them. Use at own risk but most ppl trade there everyday with no problems. Bitstamp.net Great exchange in Slovakia? I think. You have to pay with Euro SEPA wire, then for some stupid reason they convert the money to USD. You can pay in here using transferwise.com if you're from UK, or XEtrade and other Forex online money transfer companies. Google 'free money transfer fx' and review your options. Most don't charge you anything if over a certain amount of money. They take your internet billing or other local payment, convert to EUR and send SEPA for you if you request it. If they don't then check with Bitstamp what a SWIFT wire costs (probably nothing, I think they use Latvian banks that charge no receiving fees). If you want a bank account in Latvia then sign up here: http://www.rietumu.com/ if you have a local corporation or business where you live you can, maybe a personal account too. You can always incorporate a dirt cheap Delaware LLC or Oregon LLC from anywhere in the world and use it to open up worldwide bank accounts. Bitcoin-24.com Takes direct wires, all sorts of other methods: https://bitcoin-24.com/fees You can also use Liqpay if you have a USD or EUR card. Sign up to liqpay.com, then they block a small verification amount you have to sign into internet banking (for the card) to check. It's usually $1.something or less. After that you are verified to load $1-100 or so, but I'd just try $50 at first. Any more than that and Liqpay will seize the funds and ask for your bank to authorize a fax they send which no bank will do because of privacy reasons, so pointless to load anymore money. Liqpay may also call you to verify card details this is normal. Liqpay is meant for Russians and CIS countries to use like Ukraine so due to epic fraud of credit cards don't expect to load too much this way unless you find a Liqpay exchanger, but what's the point when you can just wire money to bitcoin-24 anyways. Vircurex.com Good exchange, had some problems due to DDoS but so did all exchanges. They only accept BTC, altcoins and VouchX for payment. You buy Vouchx here: https://www.aurumxchange.com/ or from somebody on Bitcointalk, or IRC (with rep). You can buy a bunch of litecoins anywhere to fund this exchange such as the bitcointalk forums or IRC. Warning: the so-called official twitter account is fake, don't use it. Cavirtex.com Can only fund if in Canada, they accept cash deposit and internet billing. Price has been steady at ~$90 all day though no panic selling. LibertyBit.com https://www.libertybit.com/funding various easy methods, new exchange in Canada that takes intl wires and shockingly Interac deposits (easily frauded). Bitcoin China https://btcchina.com/ fast growing exchange, you pay in with Alipay or Tenpay both Chinese methods that westerners can't use or figure out due to no translation. You can probably use Alipay if you find and exchanger to load it, they do exist. **Edit they now support Liberty Reserve deposit and withdrawal Check english forums to see if anybody exchanging Alipay or taking wires. CampBX.com Accepts money orders, and CapitalOne P2P payments. Also accepts Dwolla but you need to be verified. Bitcoin-central.net Just had a major outage due to instawallet hack, appears to be back online. You get your own quasi-bank account when you verify here much like how ecardone.com (liberty reserve) does banking so can transfer to other users legally with vouchers. You can buy a voucher p2p on Bitcointalk forums or IRC or send a bankwire. VirWoX.com You can pay with Paypal to get Second Life "Linden Dollars" then convert to BTC, or at least you used to be able to. I have no idea if this is still the case I've never used them. Or course there's all the fixed price exchangers https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=53.0 for everything from Moneypak to Skrill. You can also risk buying coins on Silk Road with moneypak ==============R U L E S ================================
Learn to use #bitcoin-otc, you'll thank me later. It has the most buying/sell options. Use localbitcoins.com too if you can to avoid bullshit exchange problems
ALWAYS USE 2-FACTOR ID ON EVERY EXCHANGE
Always use 2-factor ID on the email you used to sign up for the exchange
Don't click any links in BTC-E.com chat trollbox!!!
Don't click any links PM'd to you on BTC-E.com from other users
Enjoy buying all the way down the crash once Gox comes back online and the great sell off begins! Hold them for a year and they'll be worth 10x as much just like the 2011 crash. Bonus points if you speculate on Litecoin, rumor has it Gox will be trading them when they come back online but again, this is MtGox we are talking about so the site could implode on the zerg rush of people trying to get into their accounts or trading engine could sell all your coins for $0.0001 again like they did in 2011. Great successez!
To the Stock sub, yes I read the wiki, I have been increasingly more interested in the financial markets and learning how to trade. I've been reading a ton on a ton, sometimes it feels like there is so much information it can start to become overwhelming. Sometimes I don't know where to start, and sometimes I don't know where to stop. This is an immense project for anyone to start, and to the people who have 'made it'(everyone has their own definition of success' I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. It seems that, day trading, intraday trading etc. are minimized to, it's basically gambling and if you dump money in the stock market you're an idiot. I once did also subscribe to that ideology and now I realize I probably should have focused on that instead of partying with friends and making some bad decisions, but the wisest of men were once the greatest of fools said a smart guy one time, I think. Anyway just some background, I am in my early 20's and am assigned as an air traffic controller in a branch of the american military. I just developed a rough 'training plan' to get myself on the right track to being fiscally adept. The reason why I am posting is to search for some wisdom from the elders, someone that will take some time to just sift through a couple of my talking points to add or subtract some of my basic ideas, and basically just guide me in the right direction. It doesn't make much sense to go into these things blindly, especially with an area of study a whole career field is designed around. I want to develop a rough map / curriculum to follow for myself, and to try to measure any indicators (no pun intended) of progress. But I am just a beginner, so why not post this on reddit? If anyone has any tips, something to add, something to subtract, that's why this is here. I'll be around to answer any questions for the next hour or so, then I can pickup tomorrow. I'm hoping we as a community can come together with something to give to a beginner like me, with this being the beginning LINK TO GOOGLE DOCS -- HAS MORE CORRECT FORMATTING https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTf0MMvFWdrvFlz_k-ruDuMABjaJEeZ5Aed07xEnEMI/edit?usp=sharing My motivation – 1. So I can give family, friends and myself a life without worry. So, we have more time to focus on building meaningful experiences and forming a strong relationship with each other. 2. If profitable enough, to donate to cancer research to hopefully one-day cure cancer, more specifically, malignant brain cancers. 3. To have financial freedom. 4. To build wealth for myself and future generations of my family, regardless if it is my own kin. 5. To challenge myself. How I am doing this? Adopting a mix of education, research and simulated training I hope that by the end of CY18 I can have a small account funded 1500-3000 for trading while also focusing on paying down debt. Education and Research: Reading List 1. Security Analysis – a. To gain a fundamental basis to judge a stocks worth, it has great reviews and has been recommended on multiple different platforms as a must read, so I am must reading it b. This book will not relate to the trading strategy that will be adopted in the beginning to build greater wealth. However, I think this will become a staple of future trading strategies. This book is basically the polar opposite to speculative trading/investment which will comprise the trading the trading strategy used to develop the wealth needed to reach the 25k minimum needed to day trade. 2. Japanese candlestick charting techniques (JCCT)-- a. This book is allegedly a great source on learning candlestick patterns and learning technical analysis. b. The focus will be learning how to read charts quick and effectively, allowing me to draw reasonable and insightful conclusions on the potential movement on stock based on its price-action 3. Will add more to the list after I finish these, but as of now I have determined learning a mix between fundamental & technical analysis will keep me well rounded so I don’t tunnel vision one way of trading. The aim is to remain well rounded and not to rely on one skill too much. Online resources – 1. Youtube a. Ricky Gutierrez – stocks b. Timothy Sykes – stocks c. The Duomo initiative – Forex d. Numerous other youtube sources 2. Babypips – Forex 3. Lehman Brothers “Foreign Exchange Training Manual” (Dekstop) 4. Reddit? 5. Will add more as they come Simulation— 1. Tradingview.com a. Good charts, great indicators, free ‘real-time’ data and awesome charting features available as well as an easy to use papertrading, seems like a good resource for FOREX/STOCKS b. 2. TD Ameritrades ThinkOrSwim (TOS) a. 60 day Demo account that I called and got real-time data, the closest thing to a real deal trading platform I can get my hands. Will probably keep trying to learn this and use it as my basis for learning how to execute trades in the FOREX and Equity Markets. b. When the demo account runs out, make a new one, call and get live data set to the account again 3. The criteria used for the trading software a. Don’t make a lot of trades, I want to focus on only taking trades based on as much calculated risk as I can possibly calculate b. Trade around the pattern day trader rule, as when it’s time to go live I want to be used to it. What this means for me, is only take 1 or 2 trades a week, and making them meaningful. c. Try to learn something from every trade I make, failure or success I want to know if it’s pure luck or calculated risk. i. IF it’s a failure, I want to analyze why it happened to the best of my ability. ii. If it’s a success, I want to analyze how it happened and try to really solidify the knowledge. d. Try to imagine the money in the paper trading account is as real as the money in my pocket. e. Don’t rush or force trades, wait for a good “set-up” or situation. Stick to my technical analysis tools/skills and adapt to changing situations based on news releases. Training— 1. Read at least 30 minutes each day of either Security Analysis or JCCT 2. Use youtube, babypips, reddit or some other online resource to learn SOMETHING that day. I don’t care if I am rereading the Relative Strength Indicator equation, I will do some form of online research and make it meaningful or impactful in some way. 3. Using a simulation platform, most likely TOS, develop a strategy for taking trades during the week. Live by the criteria I set for myself. a. Use each blown up paper account as lesson. b. Stay focused and don’t get emotional c. Rome wasn’t built in a day. d. Go live when I win more than I lose, and am green for 4 months. 4. Don’t forget who I’m doing this for and why. To-Do list – 1. Compile a list of terms, phrases, vocabulary and indicators to define/research and call it homework 2. Find or develop a good trading journal that is designed around a specific strategy, and before I enter into any trade I can fill it in this journal and if it meets criteria it’s time to buy. 3. Make myself some form of “homework” at-least once a week and learn from it. 4. If everything works out remain humble and try to help others succeed also. Summary – The goal is through a mix of, foundational reading (Security Analysis, JCCT and others), online resources, and simulated trading I can go from someone with very low to almost no knowledge of financial markets to a profitable and successful trader in the next 6-24 months. Using realistic and measurable goals to gauge progress (how many books have I read since I set the curriculum? How am I doing papertrading? Am I staying focused? Am I too focused?) as well as always constantly reforming and changing the training plan to grow with me I think this is possible.
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