The Ultimate Beginner's Guide to Forex Backtesting ...

How to Win in Forex

If you practice strict money management rules, then you will become the casino. The house always wins because the casinos know how to control their losses.
Most people have to learn the hard way.. or don't learn from their losses at all due to emotions getting in the way. Don't be fooled by people who use big lot sizes and make big wins on social media. They suffer big losses too and if they don't control their risk management then they will not last long. The problem is that far too many people want to get rich quickly, but nobody wants to get rich slowly. Some of you, if not most, know what I'm talking about.
Take this scenario for perspective. Let's say we have a contest based on these two constants.
Who is going to come out on top? Undoubtedly, me. Why?
Because at the end of the day, money management is the only thing that will be in charge of making your account go up or down.
So how do you exactly make sure that you are using proper risk management? I would suggest either downloading a position sizing indicator and throwing that on your MT4. This will do all the math for you, saving you countless hours over time. You can find a good one on Google. If you are serious and thinking about becoming a professional forex trader for years to come then you can spend 30 minutes searching for an indicator.
The second part is to stick to your trading system. This will require some backtesting. Save your money and take the time to backtest your system. A system is needed to properly trade forex. Why? Because a system is quantifiable.
A system is basically a series of "if, then" statements.
Example: If price is below my moving average, then do not enter a long position.
You need a string of rules, or constants, to create your system. Again, if you take trading seriously, then you will take all the time you need to play with all sorts of indicators in order to find your own system until you find what works for you. This step is crucial. This is why you can never rely on another person's analysis because it is not consistent and is out of your control.
When it comes to me and my money, I want to eliminate as many things as possible that are out of my control.
With this being said, this should be a clear explanation on why price action trading is nearly impossible to consistently make profits and win in forex. There's way too much guess-work involved. Don't believe me? Have you ever found yourself asking any of these questions below? If you do, then welcome to the majority of traders who lose money.
With this said, ladies and gentlemen.. as much as you want to believe you are some kind of magician, we cannot predict the markets.. especially if you're trading with pure price action.. at least not consistently. Predicting the markets is basically the same thing as trading blindly and it's a sucker's game IMHO.
The purpose of a system is to give you an edge over the markets.
To sum up this lengthy post, here are three takeaways:
  1. Create a quantifiable trading system.
  2. Practice proper risk management.
  3. Find what works for you.
Edit: Things to study.
Baby Pips
Trading in the Zone
No Nonsense Forex
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Do you think someone will buy my C++ source code of a backtest/trade system?

Hi all,
This is not an AD, but I'm asking your opinion whether someone may be interested in my system, or whehter it's worth that I do some work to find a buyer. This is a backtesting and trade system, not strategy.
Main functions and features: * Written in C++, using Qt framework. Can run on Windows, Linux, and Mac. * Console program, very fast. * Currently only support Forex, but it's easy to extend to support other markets, such as Stock. * Backtesting. Candle bar based backtesting. It's not difficult to support tick based backtesting. * Optimization. Currently only brute force is supported, but it's quite easy to plug in other methods. * Walkforward testing. * Multiple threading. OpenMp is used for multithreading, each backtesting task is allocated on a CPU core. * One robot can use multiple instruments and multiple time frames. * Live trading system. Currently Oanda REST API is implemented. One robot can place buy/sell order on different account, to avoid no-hedging limitation. I have used it on my live account, and it works well. * Any more trade platforms should be able to be integrated to the system, such as FIX, but I didnt do any investigation yet. * Some indicators are included. MA, RSI, MACD, PSAR, etc, using ta_lib. New indicators can be developed easily. * Dukascopy data download. Incremental download tick data from Dukascopy, very fast. * Oanda data download. Using Oanda REST API, incremental, very fast. * Simple charting. So the report contains a balance chart, very intuitive. * Some other features, such as convert Dukascopy tick data to internal candle binary data, convert candle data to MT4 CSV, etc. * Unit testing. Some key components are unit tested. * High quality code. I'm an experienced developer. You can check my code quality and style from my open source C++ library, cpgf, on github, though it's not finance related. * Very good performance. The bar based backtesting system is highly optimized. * Since the architecture is good, the system can be used as either a program or a library. * About 50K lines of C++ code. * I spent about one year partial time on it.
My question is, do you think anyone will be interested to buy my source code? And how much do you think I should charge for? Or beside selling the source code, what do you think I can do to earn some money via the system? My original purpose developing such a system is to use by myself, but I'm not sure when I can find a good strategy to earn some money for me.
Thanks
submitted by wqking to algotrading [link] [comments]

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